Chaos in Afghanistan Threatens CPEC

Pakistan has gone to great lengths to pursue its goals in Afghanistan, which is why the Afghan conflict has spilled over to its own borders. In this context, noted Pakistan journalist Zahid Hussain rightly argues in his latest book, “No-Win War,” that “in fact, the Taliban had established a strategic depth in Pakistan,” thanks to its increasing interventionist policies in Afghan affairs.Among other things, the current wave of the Afghan conflict has got the potential to threaten Chinese interests, particularly the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project in Pakistan. CPEC is the crown jewel of Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to build infrastructure, expand trade links, and deepen ties across Eurasia and Africa.

Ever since the announcement of CPEC in 2015, Beijing has been looking to expand CPEC to Pakistan’s neighboring countries, including Afghanistan. To pave the way for it, Beijing has been pushing Pakistan to open border points with Afghanistan in order to increase trade with an eye toward CPEC. As a result, Pakistan announced plans last year to establish 12 border markets with Afghanistan, versus just six border markets with Iran.

But perhaps the most ominous development took place this year. In April 2021, the Tehreek-I Taliban Pakistan (TTP) detonated a bomb at a luxury hotel in Quetta, the provincial capital of southwestern Balochistan province. The assault reportedly killed five people and wounded 12. Initial press reports suggested that the target was Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Nong Rong. The Pakistan Taliban did not mention the specific target and the ambassador was not present in hotel at the time of the attack, even though he was believed to be in Quetta at the time.

The TTP has its roots in the Afghan Taliban, and thus its rise and fall is intimately connected to the situation across the border in Afghanistan. In recent months, even as the Taliban gathered strength in the wake of a peace deal with the U.S., the TTP announced the merger of its various splintered groups, which have been carrying out largescale attacks inside Pakistan. In this context, independent Pakistani analysts are concerned that the TPP will pose obstacles and security issues for CPEC projects inside Pakistan.

Over the years, through military actions in its bordering areas with Afghanistan, the Pakistani Army has pushed the TTP elements out of the country and into Afghanistan. The TTP has been using Afghan soil for operations and support. Despite Pakistan’s protests, the Afghan Taliban have not taken action against their Pakistani brethren, despite a growing number of attacks in Pakistan. The TTP has been infiltrating through the porous borders between the two countries, driving Pakistan to begin fencing its border with Afghanistan.

Ever since the U.S. troop withdrawal began, the TTP and other nationalist elements have carried out attacks in Pakistan to show they are still operational. Overall, as the United States prepares to leave, their targets have shifted to Chinese investments, including CPEC.

The success of CPEC, and by extension, the entire BRI, now depends on Afghanistan, which is expected to become a new battle ground.

Want to read more? Check out the August 2021: SHIELDWatch Newsletter